England & Wales autumn increases are regional & very different from spring

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England & Wales autumn increases are regional & very different from spring


London stands out, having been hardest hit in spring, yet relatively unaffected in autumn [by ONS mortality data, week 48]. That's not what one might expect if generally held beliefs were true.


If, as often stated, the vast majority of the population remain susceptible to infection, then London, given its nature, should show especially strong growth (as it did in spring). The data have indicated for some time now that this has not been happening.


What we see is more in keeping with the idea of the situation having followed a largely natural course. Autumn increases have been significantly less severe than spring. With the susceptible population depleted there is less growth - as is especially evident in London.


This begs the question: If the epidemic has followed a largely natural course & deaths are approx an order of magnitude lower than predicted (ICL predicted 500k for UK), then should we not be updating the assumptions that led to those predictions & still guide our thinking...?





[Analysis, thoughts, opinions & errors my own.]


@RuminatorDan

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