RuminatorDan

England & Wales autumn increases are regional & very different from spring London stands out, having been hardest hit in spring, yet relatively unaffected in autumn [by ONS mortality data, week 48]. That's not what one might expect if generally held beliefs were true. If, as often stated, the vast majority of the population remain susceptible to infection, then London, given its nature, should show especially strong growth (as it did in spring). The data have indicated for some time now that this has not been happening. What we see is more in keeping with the idea of the situation having followed a largely natural course. Autumn increases have been significantly less severe than spring. With the susceptible population depleted there is less growth - as is especially evident in London. This begs the question: If the epidemic has followed a largely natural course & deaths are approx an order of magnitude lower than predicted (ICL predicted 500k for UK), then should we not

  Perspective, a very short piece Lockdowns, testing etc were justified by the belief that, without them, total Covid deaths (blue area) would be close to annual non-Covid deaths (green area). In no country of which I’m aware has anything close to that happened, irrespective of differences in policy.