Posts

England & Wales autumn increases are regional & very different from spring

-
Image
England & Wales autumn increases are regional & very different from spring London stands out, having been hardest hit in spring, yet relatively unaffected in autumn [by ONS mortality data, week 48]. That's not what one might expect if generally held beliefs were true. If, as often stated, the vast majority of the population remain susceptible to infection, then London, given its nature, should show especially strong growth (as it did in spring). The data have indicated for some time now that this has not been happening. What we see is more in keeping with the idea of the situation having followed a largely natural course. Autumn increases have been significantly less severe than spring. With the susceptible population depleted there is less growth - as is especially evident in London. This begs the question: If the epidemic has followed a largely natural course & deaths are approx an order of magnitude lower than predicted (ICL predicted 500k for UK), then should we not...
Read more

Perspective, a very short piece

-
Image
  Perspective, a very short piece Lockdowns, testing etc were justified by the belief that, without them, total Covid deaths (blue area) would be close to annual non-Covid deaths (green area). In no country of which I’m aware has anything close to that happened, irrespective of differences in policy.
Read more

England & Wales Autumn Covid deaths show regional heterogeneity. London, in particular, is interesting

-
Image
England & Wales Autumn Covid deaths show regional heterogeneity. London, in particular, is interesting [27Nov2020_1] London's more severe & earlier spring growth may well explain why it has, to date, seen less of an autumn rise. [Charts normalised by year to date non-Covid deaths.] The generally held belief is that only a small percentage of people have so far been infected by SARS-CoV-2 & that the vast majority remain susceptible to infection - hence all the measures taken. There are, however, reasons & evidence suggesting that this is not the case. If the vast majority of people were still susceptible, one would expect growth everywhere. However, autumn rises have varied greatly across regions. London especially, given its nature (crowding etc) would be expected to show aggressive growth, as it did in spring.  It has not. The past provides a clue as to the reason. London's spring rise in Covid deaths was the most aggressive: not only faster & larger than o...
Read more

The Tyranny of Keeping R Below 1

-
  THE TYRANNY OF "KEEPING R BELOW 1" UK PM and Health Secretary have commented that the goal is to bring R below 1 & keep it there until a vaccine. A Sisyphean task. Impossible. Not due to the virus, but due to a misunderstanding of logic, science & maths. Infections rising: R > 1 Infections falling: R < 1 This would seem simple. As the epidemic grows R is above 1. As it wanes, R is below 1. But infections cannot fall forever. When the level of infections has fallen to very low levels (or even zero) & a large proportion of the infections detected are false positives, then the infection figures will appear fairly stable; albeit with some noise, which is a problem at lower numbers. Since infections are stable, even if this is because they are mostly gone, R cannot remain below 1. R will therefore rise from below 1 to 1. & there it will remain, with some movement due to noise. Indefinitely. To demand that R remains below 1 is to make success impossible. [an...
Read more

In the pandemic, what are the most important questions of all?

-
  In the pandemic, what are the most important questions of all? The PCR debacle, operation Moonshot, masks, school closures, ruined health, futures and incomes, liberties... All spring forth from our underlying beliefs about the virus. These issues, important as they are, distract our attention from the most important questions of all… No one denies that it's a nasty virus that can be lethal. I know people who've suffered with it. I also know plenty who've had horrible experiences with other things too (often caused by the avoidable actions of people). There's no risk-free option. It was claimed approx 500K people in the UK & 2M in USA would die, (~0.5-1% of the population). On that basis we closed much of the world. But, even the hardest hit countries lost roughly one tenth of that number of people (& that despite the differences in measures taken). You can - you should - look those numbers up for yourself. It looks like we overestimated the problem by somethi...
Read more

Czech Republic & other European Higher Fatality Countries

-
Image
CZECH REPUBLIC & OTHER EUROPEAN HIGHER FATALITY COUNTRIES Signs of Czech Rep deaths slowing? I wish them well. Interesting, yet again, that the cumulative total is so similar to other hard hit locations, which are all around 10x lower than generally used predictions... The point is not to use these data for some ugly competition. Rather, these data and their differences - or similarities - can reveal very important information about #SARSCoV2 . For example, UK deaths were predicted to reach ~7500 per Million (=~500k people, without measures). However, if the hypotheses that led to such predictions were true, & such totals have only been averted by lockdown, then one would expect large variations between countries (as exact details & timing of lockdown and other measures would be critical). High sensitivity to timing would be the case if "high lethality+all susceptible+lockdowns work" hypotheses were true. Yet all the high fatality locations have quite similar tota...
Read more

Recent UK rises have been regional

-
Image
Recent UK rises have been regional England & Wales normalised regional Covid deaths, w/e 6Mar20 - 30Oct2020 The North West (front/left ribbon) shows the highest normalised increase, while London, more severely affected in spring (tallest peak), appears far less affected now. @RuminatorDan
Read more